Trends panel

Going to try and write an ongoing post for the trends panel. The panelists this year are Scott DeLoach (SD), Alan Houser (AH), Kevin Siegel (KS), Bogo Vatovec (BV), and Joe Welinske (JW).

3:10pm, the topic: Tools & Technology

3:12pm, AH: XML-based authoring will remain a niche-based technology. XML tools aren't as robust, standards are complex and move more slowly. Authoring tool vendors add XML as a "check off" item.

3:14PM, KS: Bullish on Adobe TechComm suite. Adobe will develop it for the Mac. Frame used to exist for the Mac, shouldn't be hard to bring it back. Mac preferred for high-end Flash work. Lot of engineering work for Captivate, RoboHelp, because they never existed on Mac before.

3:16pm, BV: UA technologies will bridge the gap betwrrn readers and creators and support user=generated content. Single-sourcing a shot in the wrong direction.

3:18pm, SB: Within 7 years. applications, files, and almost everything else will be web based. Local apps will exists, but will be rarely used. PCs will miniaturize.

3:26pm, the topic: User Assistance

3:27pm, SD: All software UA will be embedded or web-based. UA search tools will include wikis, discussion groups FAQ centers, knowledgebases, and live chat with tech support.

3:28pm, KS: Unsociable help systems won't be invited to the party. Help will have more demonstrations and simulations.

3:30pm, BV: "Introverted" technical writers who don't want to go out and help users won't be writing help, and will instead be moderating support forums. Company-supported experts will provide a link between users and engineers.

3:32pm, AH: Rich Internet application technology will fill the void in help delivery engines. Vista help, if publicly released, does not provide a general-purppose help delivery solution. RIA engines, such as Adobe AIR, will lead to platform-independent help delivery engines.

3:43pm, the topic: IT Industry

3:43pm, SB: Within 10 years, web will not be free. Ads will be blocked with paid subscriptions. Access devices and access will be free or inexpensive.

3:45pm, KS: Smaller training companies could meet their demise. Aggressive software vendors man training companies will find it more difficult to keep up. More training will go online/virtual.

3:48pm, AH: Quality of machine translation will increase dramatically in 5 years, will match the quality of human translation within 10 years.

3:51, BG: Computers as we know them will disappear. We will have all-in-one devices, specialized, devices, and embedded computers. Specialized devices will become even more specialized.